基于攻防博弈的电力系统外部脆弱性评估

The power system, as vital national infrastructure, is confronted with increasingly severe external attack threats. Current research has primarily focused on defensive layouts and loss analyses in the context of specific attack levels, neglecting the unpredictability of attacker's capability and lacking an endurance safety assessment for the power system. Compared to mainstream studies, the work reported in this paper presents a novel analytical scenario where a regional power system experiences complete failure due to the physical attack, aiming to develop a holistic vulnerability assessment method for localized power grids facing unknown attacker capability. The proposed method specifically establishes an Attack-Defense game model including two distinct objective functions with interdependent decision-making to maintain the resistance characteristic of the defender. Besides, based on the characteristics of the model, a customized method is proposed to solve and validate the original optimization problem through permutation problem. Simulation results based on the IEEE 14-bus and 118-bus systems verified the correctness of the proposed models. And a comparative analysis of various resource allocation schemes for national territorial defense has been conducted to validate the effectiveness of the assessment methodology.