考虑混合不确定性风险量化的发电机组维修调度方法

The accurate quantification of risk caused by uncertainty forms a crucial foundation for formulating the generation maintenance scheduling (GMS) of power systems. However, the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of uncertain variables such as wind power and load are challenging to model accurately or are unknown, which makes it difficult to measure their economic risk and formulate appropriate GMS for power systems. To address this issue, we consider hybrid uncertainty from wind power and load, and propose a novel interval-probabilistic worst conditional value-at-risk (IP-WCVaR)-based generation maintenance scheduling method. Firstly, a novel IP-WCVaR method is proposed to measure the risk of the interval and probabilistic hybrid uncertainty, and the analytical mathematical model of the IP-WCVaR is derived through typical scenarios of probability correction. On this basis, the positive and negative spinning reserve models are established using the IP-WCVaR and then integrated into the GMS model, which enhances the resilience of the power system. Finally, the new risk-averse GMS model is formulated as the lower and upper boundary optimal models, which are transformed into tractable mixed integer linear programming problems based on the interval extreme value theory. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed IP-WCVaR method are verified on the modified IEEE 24-bus and IEEE 118-bus power systems.