大型风能驱动并利用直接空气捕集CO₂制甲醇工厂的成本缩放特性研究：以智利为例

Abstract Large-scale methanol production plants using fossil resources benefit from the cost-reductions brought by economies of scale. Whereas the emerging Power-to-Methanol (PtM) processes with low CO 2 emissions rely on distributed energy resources and have a vastly different technological make-up, which will affect the cost-reductions achievable by their ongoing scale-up. To quantify this cost-scaling behavior a modeling study was carried out focusing on a location with excellent wind-energy resources in southern Chile, where multiple Power-to-X projects are already being developed. Detailed models for the PtM plant and the energy generation grid design were developed. The PtM plant model integrates recent techno-economic analyses that capture economies of scale relationships for individual process components (e.g. PEM water electrolysis, solid- and liquid-based DAC) while also accounting for hourly wind fluctuations by solving a scheduling optimization problem. In the grid design model the costs for wind turbines, cable connections, infrastructure, and land leasing are minimized while considering cable selection and power losses. By utilizing these models production systems with capacities between 20 to 2600 kt/a were evaluated for 2020 and 2050 cost-scenarios. The results suggest smaller cost-reductions achievable for the PtM compared to natural gas–based plants, mainly because of modular technologies dominating costs in large-scale systems. Non-linear scaling of the grid also weakens economies of scale, with wind turbine power density and land availability near the PtM plant influencing the severity of this effect. These quantified cost-reduction trends also offer insight into how smaller-scale, distributed PtM plants might compete with larger centralized facilities.