欧洲范围内单轴、垂直和高架农光互补系统的经济评估：一项蒙特卡洛分析

Abstract Energy conversion from conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems requires a significant amount of land, which can compete with food production. Agrivoltaic systems, which integrate electricity generation and crop production, can help reduce this land competition. The profitability of agrivoltaic systems is expected to be a crucial factor for decision-makers and stakeholders considering their adoption. This work aims to analyze the economic performance of one-axis, vertical and elevated agrivoltaic systems compared to conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems across Europe focusing on countries such as Sweden, Denmark, Germany and Italy. By employing a stochastic approach with Monte Carlo simulations, this research makes a significant contribution to forecasting the profitability and cost-effectiveness of agrivoltaic projects in European countries for the next years. Moreover, it identifies the key parameters that significantly impact the net present value and levelized cost of electricity. The economic findings reveal a notable trend: agrivoltaic projects (i.e., one-axis, vertical, and elevated) are likely to be profitable throughout Europe. However, the agricultural profit generated from these systems is minimal for the investigated crop rotations compared to the benefits derived from energy conversion. Among the systems evaluated, one-axis agrivoltaic setups demonstrate higher profitability and cost-effectiveness compared to vertical and elevated setups. They also have a shorter discounted payback period and a lower levelized cost of electricity than conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems. These findings are particularly significant for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in developing agrivoltaic policies. This is especially relevant for Sweden which currently lacks agrivoltaic policies, regulations, and definitions, in contrast to Germany and Italy where policies for promoting agrivoltaics have previously been implemented or are in progress.