全球分辨率下海上风电的经济技术性分析

Abstract Offshore wind power capacity is growing worldwide, with continuous technological improvements and the saturation of onshore renewable power potential in densely populated coastal areas. While more costly today, the economics of offshore wind power are improving, and it is expected to become economically competitive in high energy demand regions, necessitating an analysis with cost projections into the future. This study assesses offshore wind power's techno-economic potential through hourly simulations and cost calculations, considering three different turbine spacing options. Results indicate increasing economic potential at various cost thresholds, driven by declining floating turbine costs. Regional variations depend on water depth and distance to high-wind resources. Sparse installation density yields higher economic potential under 30 €/MWh due to reduced wake losses. The study estimates 27.3 TW of installable capacity within 370 km of shore, in waters less than 1000 m deep, with 25% area utilisation and 66,200 TWh of electricity generation potential. Although significantly lower than a previous study considering similar spatial limitations, this potential would be sufficient to fulfil the electricity demand of mid-2020s even if all energy sectors were to be electrified. No configuration shows potential under 20 €/MWh, limiting offshore wind power's competitiveness with onshore renewables. However, the value to energy systems may be derived from smoother power output and proximity to coastal demand centres. The potential for offshore floating wind power hubs is discussed and calculations show significant potential under 50 €/MWh, when grid costs and respective losses are excluded.