基于多准则决策方法的可持续混合能源系统综合评估：兼顾供应风险、技术经济与环境因素及新兴储能技术

Abstract This study presents a novel approach for developing decentralized hybrid energy systems by integrating renewable energy sources with energy storage technologies, offering a sustainable pathway for energy transition. Energy storage enhances the reliability, efficiency, and flexibility of these systems, balancing supply and demand, stabilizing the grid, and enabling higher renewable energy penetration. However, traditional energy models often overlook the role of raw materials in renewable energy infrastructure. This study addresses this gap by evaluating raw materials based on their environmental impact, economic feasibility, and supply risks. The availability, cost, and sustainable sourcing of critical materials significantly affect the scalability of energy technologies, while geopolitical and market uncertainties create supply chain risks. We propose a methodology integrating material-specific techno-economic optimization, life cycle assessment, and supply risk indicators into energy system models to better understand raw material requirements. By optimizing a mix of conventional and non-conventional energy sources alongside three storage technologies, we develop a solution that meets load demand while minimizing risks. Our results identify the most cost-effective, environmentally friendly, and low-risk energy combinations. The photovoltaic-Wind-diesel generator-Vanadium redox flow battery configuration emerges as the optimal solution, with a levelized cost of energy of $0.253/kWh, a composite risk score of 0.291, and moderate environmental impact.