基于灵敏度的可再生能源可用发电容量变化跟随滚动运行可靠性评估方法

Power system operation reliability evaluation is performed in advance with the predicted value of renewable energy outputs because of the time-consuming evaluation process. However, forecasts of renewable energy outputs are continuously updated during power system operation, leading to the requirement for rolling evaluation to maintain accurate system reliability. In this paper, an efficient within-day rolling operational reliability evaluation based on the sensitivity of power system reliability with respect to the available generation capacity of renewable energies is proposed. This approach can be used to obtain the reliability indices by correcting the previous reliability evaluation results when the renewable energy outputs fluctuate slightly. First, the transmission line status dictionary method and the load feasible region (LFR) approach are combined in this paper to construct an LFR-based Monte Carlo simulation method for reliability evaluation. Then, an approximate distance method for load shedding calculation is proposed to establish the linear polynomial relationship between the load shedding and the available generation capacity of renewable energies. Finally, the sensitivity of the reliability with respect to the available generation capacity of renewable energies is established based on the proposed linear polynomial. Case studies were performed to evaluate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed methods.