量化全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C情景下中国光伏发电潜力的时空变化

Abstract This study utilizes the high-resolution NEX-GDDP climate dataset combined with the Global Solar Estimation Model (GSEE) to systematically assess China's PV power generation potential under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, specifically SSP245 and SSP585, aiming to reach the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets. The results demonstrate pronounced regional disparities and temporal variability in PV resources will be induced by climate warming in China. Specifically, relative to the baseline period (1995–2014), PV generation potential in southern China gradually increases under the SSP245 scenario (approximately 3.1 %), while a moderate decline is observed in northern regions, particularly in parts of the Xizang Plateau and Xinjiang (around −1.7 %). Under the SSP585 scenario, this regional pattern persists but with slightly different magnitudes - southern regions experience increases of around 2 %, while northern areas continue showing declining trends. As warming reaches 2 °C, these regional disparities intensify, with some areas in Xizang and Xinjiang experiencing reductions exceeding −3.2 %, while certain provinces in central China see increases of up to 5.1 %. Temporal variation analysis reveals that under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios, most eastern regions demonstrate reduced interannual variability compared to the baseline period. Additionally, seasonal analysis reveals that the increase in PV generation is most pronounced during the winter and spring seasons in the southeastern region (with some areas reaching up to 6.2 %), whereas summer and autumn changes are relatively marginal. An examination of the eight major power grid regions indicates that the future PV power generation potential in southern grid areas is significantly enhanced, presenting opportunities for further energy structure optimization. In contrast, certain northern regions (i.e., Inner Mongolia) will face diminishing PV potential, necessitating strategic adjustments in PV development planning to mitigate emerging challenges. This study offers scientific evidence to support China's carbon neutrality goals, providing valuable insights into optimizing the spatial distribution of photovoltaic installations in the context of climate change .