低碳模式对风能和太阳能协同效益的增强与稳定作用：来自中国的证据

Abstract Wind and solar energy are seen as the most promising renewable energy sources for the future and will dominate future global renewable energy expansion. However, there is still a lack of sufficient research on the variation, especially the synergistic variation, of wind power (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV POT ) generation under low-carbon modes. Here, we use bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) to analyse changes in WP and solar PV POT by mid-century, providing a comprehensive assessment under two carbon-neutral scenarios. The results show that low-carbon modes significantly mitigate the continuous decline in China's wind energy resources, particularly in East and Central China. In the future, China's solar resources will shift southeastward, and under low-carbon modes, this growth trend becomes more significant, stable, and persistent. Beyond their individual effects on wind and solar energy, low-carbon modes notably improve the efficiency of wind and solar energy utilization, enhancing the synergistic benefits of renewable energy across the country. On this basis, further analysis of the drivers of WP and solar PV POT changes in China reveals that changes in the frequency of cut-in wind speed (V < 3 m s −1 ) and ramp-up wind speed (3 ≤ V ≤ 11 m s −1 ) are the main contributors to the changes in 21st-century WP, whereas solar PV POT changes are dominated by rsds, with a negligible effect of wind. Finally, we emphasise that global carbon neutral policies can effectively enhance the stability of China's WP and solar PV POT especially their synergistic benefits across different time scales. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for the development of long-term renewable energy planning in China.