识别建筑光伏系统成本效益分析中影响因素的框架

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) systems are widely used globally to decarbonize building energy systems. However, economic and social challenges hinder broader deployment, raising concerns about the viability of this technology. This study explores the key factors influencing the economic profitability of PV systems in buildings using cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. To emphasize stakeholders' perspectives and assess the impact of cost-benefit distributions on CBA outcomes, two business cases are examined. Findings show that the owner-exclusive business case improves financial feasibility by aligning costs and benefits, while the owner-tenant shared model can disproportionately burden tenants. A typical office building in Norway serves as the case study, with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses exploring critical parameters including macro-economic, micro-economic, temporal, property, and technological aspects. Global sensitivity analysis proves more robust than local analysis in identifying key parameters, with PV system cost, maintenance cost, PV module lifetime, and available roof area contributing most to economic outcomes. Uncertainty analysis shows approximately 40 % likelihood of achieving a net present value above zero and a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than one under current conditions. The proposed framework is globally applicable by introducing regional variables such as cost benchmarks, policies, PV system properties, and stakeholder dynamics. It also provides decision-makers with a comprehensive overview of influential factors. Additionally, it emphasizes the critical role of stakeholders' interests in shaping the outcomes and underscores the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in long-term projects with a high number of uncertain but potentially influential input to improve profitability.