评估城市光伏集成的双重辐射效应：反照率变化与辐射强迫动态

Abstract Integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems in urban areas enhances local renewable electricity production but also reduces surface albedo due to the lower reflectivity of PV panels. This albedo reduction increases Earth’s energy absorption, resulting in positive radiative forcing (RF), while the displacement of fossil fuels by PV electricity leads to negative RF through avoided CO 2 emissions. This study quantifies the net RF impact of urban rooftop PV deployment using a novel workflow. This proposed workflow combines: (1) a geometric spectral albedo (GSA) model, using LiDAR data and geo-referenced material maps to simulate albedo changes before and after PV integration; and (2) a simplified skyline-based PV model, using LiDAR-derived roof geometry to estimate annual PV electricity generation. The method is applied to the city of Delft, the Netherlands, and the average simulated albedo of Delft is 0.1584, differing by 6.12 % from MODIS observations (0.1493). Full PV integration on all rooftops reduces the city-wide albedo to 0.1557, corresponding to a positive RF of 3.53 × 10 − 8 W/m 2 . This can be offset in about 40 days by negative RF from PV electricity, assuming a grid carbon intensity of 454 gCO 2 -eq/kWh. However, under a low-carbon grid scenario (30 gCO 2 -eq/kWh), the payback time increases to 623 days, indicating that positive RF from albedo reduction becomes more relevant in future decarbonized scenarios. This study contributes to understanding the climatic implications of urban PV deployment and offers insights into the realistic potential of PV systems in mitigating climate change.