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光伏发电技术 ★ 5.0

美国和加拿大的可持续能源工业系统:展示太阳能到多用途能源的价值

Sustainable Energy Industry Systems in the United States and Canada Demonstrating the Value of Solar-to-X

作者 Gabriel Lopez · Arman Aghahosseini · Dmitrii Bogdanov · Rasul Satymov · Ayobami Solomon Oyewo · Christian Breyer
期刊 IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics
出版日期 2025年2月
技术分类 光伏发电技术
相关度评分 ★★★★★ 5.0 / 5.0
关键词 太阳能光伏 能源行业转型 可再生能源 电力成本 零排放目标
语言:

中文摘要

太阳能光伏(PV)的显著增长正在推动能源产业系统向高度可持续方向转型。尽管设定了到2050年实现净零排放的目标,但化石燃料在美国和加拿大的能源产业系统中仍占主导地位。本文制定并分析了转型路径,将能源和非能源需求的完全脱碳情景与基于政府预测的常规情景进行了对比。结果表明,所有部门向100%可再生能源转型具有诸多益处,因为太阳能光伏产生的过剩低成本电力可用于“电转X”解决方案,以生产电力基燃料、化学品和材料。到2050年,电力部门仅消耗所发电量的20%,其余电力将用于为供热、运输和工业部门供电。因此,系统中86%的一次能源将来自可再生电力,总发电量将从2020年的4394太瓦时增加到2050年的20795太瓦时。太阳能光伏发电量将占总发电量的78%,装机容量将达到10.6太瓦。整个能源产业部门的转型将降低平准化电力成本(LCOE)和平准化终端能源成本(LCOFE)。平准化电力成本将从2020年的每兆瓦时72欧元大幅降至2050年的每兆瓦时25欧元,平准化终端能源成本将从目前的每兆瓦时50欧元降至2050年的每兆瓦时41欧元。太阳能光伏与灵活电解之间强大的运行协同效应为“电转X”经济实现净零排放气候目标提供了一条可行的转型路径。太阳能光伏的高占比体现了“太阳能转X”经济的特征。

English Abstract

The transition to highly sustainable energy industry systems is being driven by significant growth in solar photovoltaics (PV). Despite targets to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, fossil fuels still dominate the energy industry systems in the USA and Canada. Transition pathways are developed and analyzed comparing a complete defossilization of both energy and nonenergy demands with business-as-usual conditions based on government projections. The results demonstrate the benefits of transitioning to 100% renewable energy for all sectors, as excess low-cost electricity from solar PV can be used for power-to-X solutions to produce electricity-based fuels, chemicals, and materials. By 2050, the power sector will only consume 20% of generated electricity, with the remaining used to electrify the heat, transport, and industry sectors. Thus, 86% of all primary energy in the system comes from renewable electricity, as total electricity generation increases from 4394 TWh in 2020 to 20 795 TWh in 2050. Solar PV reaches 78% of all electricity generation, leading to 10.6 TW of installed capacity. The full energy industry sector transition leads to reductions in both levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized cost of final energy (LCOFE). The LCOE sees massive reductions from 72 €/MWh in 2020 to 25 €/MWh in 2050, and the LCOFE decreases from the current 50 to 41 €/MWh in 2050. The strong operational synergies between solar PV and flexible electrolysis enable a transition pathway that demonstrates the viability of a Power-to-X Economy in achieving climate targets of net-zero emissions. The high share of solar PV indicates a Solar-to-X Economy characteristic.
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SunView 深度解读

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