北欧未来光伏发电潜力在变化积雪条件下的评估

Abstract Future changes in solar photovoltaic (PV) energy production potential in Northern Europe were assessed by utilising daily solar radiation, snow and temperature data from 13 global climate models. Since the modelled snow cover data represent horizontal ground, the findings primarily apply to solar panels with a low tilt angle. The key outcome of the analysis is that a reduction in snow cover in the future will substantially increase the potential for PV production. For a moderate greenhouse gas scenario, the projected multi-model mean change in production from 1981–2010 to 2070–2099 is approximately 20% in Northern Scandinavia and slightly less than 10% in northern Central Europe. If the impacts of snow cover were disregarded, the change would be smaller than 5% in most of the domain. In absolute terms, the increase is largest in spring when there is abundant solar radiation and the snow cover effectively responds to warming. While the models agree on the sign of change, particularly in spring, there is considerable divergence in the magnitude of the increase. Alongside the projected increase in temporally averaged production potential, the proportion of days favourable for solar PV production increases substantially, especially in April and May. The analysis indicates that when assessing future changes in PV production in boreal areas, it is of utmost importance to consider changes in the snow cover.