评估浮式光伏驱动的绿色氢能在内河渡轮运营中的环境与经济可行性：以土耳其为例

Abstract This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the environmental impacts and costs associated with a floating photovoltaic (FPV)-powered green hydrogen production system for a ferry line in Türkiye, utilizing life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle cost assessment (LCCA) methods. The methodology involves regridding daily data from 13 Global Climate Models (GCMs) to a consistent 1° × 1° grid, comparing this data with ERA5 datasets using various statistical methods, and identifying the top four GCMs. These models are then used to forecast ambient temperature, wind speed , and solar radiation for 2023–2052. Based on these forecasts, the FPV system's component sizes are determined. The LCA, based on the GREET 2022 database, reveals that green hydrogen is the most environmentally friendly option, reducing global warming potential (GWP) by 77.5 % compared to marine diesel oil (MDO 0.1 % S), with more than 62 % of GWP for the hydrogen-powered ferry attributed to PV production. LCCA results indicate that, without subsidies, green hydrogen is not economically feasible for the selected inland ferry line. Carbon taxes are insufficient to bridge cost differences, highlighting the need for financial incentives. Reducing corporate tax to 10 % is identified as the most effective incentive, and the Production Tax Credit (PTC) option maximizes internal rates of return for green hydrogen producers. This study provides valuable insights for sustainable energy choices in maritime transport, emphasizing the importance of both environmental and economic considerations.