协调关键矿产资源与储能一体化的中国可再生能源转型

Abstract Driven by ambitious dual-carbon goals, China's renewable energy is growing rapidly, however, the transition faces potential bottlenecks due to the scarcity of critical minerals. Existing assessments largely neglect energy storage integration, risking incomplete strategies for sustainable transitions. To address this gap, China’s ambitious renewable energy targets are supposed to significantly increase mineral demands for energy storage as well. In this context, this study employs the dynamic material flow analysis combined with five shared socioeconomic pathways and eleven technological scenarios to project demand and scarcity for 23 critical minerals in China’s storage-integrated renewable energy transition from 2020 to 2060. The results showed that by 2060, the demands for these critical minerals will increase by 5.8 (solar), 36.6 (wind), and 26.8-fold (storage) relative to 2022, with germanium, tellurium, indium, selenium, and chromium facing absolute scarcity where the cumulative demand exceeds domestic reserves (0.19–6.17-fold). These findings establish a storage-integrated framework for assessing critical mineral constraints, expecting to provide actionable insights for resource allocation and sustainable technology pathways in China accelerating renewable energy adoption.