离网型混合可再生能源系统的多准则决策与不确定性分析——以海岛社区为例

Abstract This study examines advanced hybrid renewable energy system configurations designed for a remote island community. The configurations integrate multiple technologies, including wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, fuel cells, diesel generators, batteries, converters, electrolyzers, and hydrogen storage tanks, enabling a synergetic approach to energy generation, storage, and management. Excess electricity produced from the systems is utilized for battery charging and green hydrogen production, enhancing system flexibility and resilience. A detailed techno-economic and environmental assessment of the configurations was performed. Furthermore, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution based multicriteria decision-making framework was employed to identify the optimal configuration. The best-performing configuration, System A, achieved the highest relative closeness value of 0.8877. Additionally, an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations was conducted to assess economic risks and uncertainties associated with meeting energy demand. The findings indicate that increasing the total electric load percentage significantly reduces the levelized cost of energy, while a rise in the capital recovery factor results in an incremental levelized cost of energy, ranging from 0.154 to 0.197 $/kWh. The uncertainty analysis reveals that the Generic boiler and fuel cell have the highest net present cost impact, with factors of 0.57 and 0.49, respectively, among the system components.