中国电力转型路径经济可行性的比较分析

Abstract The urgency of climate change mitigation has intensified global efforts to limit temperature rise, with China’s power transition playing a crucial role in meeting these targets. While transition pathways have been extensively studied, the economic viability of different transition strategies—particularly those emphasizing wind and solar power, nuclear power, and fossil fuel power with carbon capture and storage (CCS)—remains inadequately compared. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the economic feasibility of the three transition strategies through a comprehensive analysis of 119 pathways from the AR6 Scenarios Database. Cumulative construction costs are estimated using Wright’s law for cost reductions, while autoregressive models are applied to technologies with stable or increasing costs. The results indicate that the high wind and solar pathway is the most cost-effective, with cumulative costs ranging between 5.07 and 5.26 trillion USD. In contrast, the high nuclear and high CCS pathways are significantly more expensive, with costs rising to 6.31 and 8.21 trillion USD, respectively. Additionally, both cumulative costs and emissions are expected to be lower under the 1.5 °C scenario compared to the 2 °C scenario. These findings suggest that the key challenge for China’s power transition lies not only in the availability of capital but in the effective but also a rapid allocation of market capital towards clean energy development.