气候变化下区域能源系统的性能表现：以深圳为例

Abstract The impacts of climate change on the economic performance of different district energy systems (DES) are rarely evaluated. In this research, the performance of both conventional and combined heat and power systems (CCHP) are simulated and compared by modeling and analyzing the DES. Building simulation is conducted by using the downscaled future hourly weather data in the period of 2050–2060 under two future climate scenarios. Optimal sizing and operation schedule of the DES are determined in both current and future climate. Lifetime annualized heating and cooling per area cost (HC) is used to compare the economic performance of the district system. It is found that the annul cooling load in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 6 % and 9.68 %. The HC of the conventional system ranges from 122.72 Yuan/m 2 to 141.1 Yuan/m 2 with a range of profit rate from 5 % to 20 % under various climate scenarios, and that number for the CCHP is from 72.36 Yuan/m 2 to 95.24 Yuan/m 2 . Compared with the conventional system, the optimal CCHP system charges 32.5 % to 41 % less on the building end users if the lifetime profit rate is to be maintained between 5 % to 20 %.