利用可再生能源资源进行可持续电制燃料生产、液化与运输的技术经济可行性研究

Abstract E-fuels, such as hydrogen-based and ammonia-based synthetic fuels, provide advanced alternatives to traditional fossil fuels with the potential to reduce emissions. This study aims to investigate the techno-economic feasibility of e-fuel production using renewable energy resources across various locations in Egypt. The proposed system integrates solar photovoltaic and wind turbines to power proton exchange membrane electrolyzes. Specifically, a comprehensive mathematical model is developed, incorporating dynamic resource profiles and thermodynamic modeling, to evaluate hydrogen production, liquefaction, ammonia synthesis, and transport. The system’s performance is evaluated across seventeen geographically diverse sites in Egypt, using standard technical and economic performance metrics, including the levelized cost of hydrogen/ammonia (LCOH/LCOA), while accounting for site-specific energy yields and electrolysis efficiencies. The results demonstrate significant spatial variability in renewable energy availability, with Aswan and Hurghada emerging as prime locations for solar- and wind-driven hydrogen production, respectively. These locations achieved average LCOH and LCOA values of 6.29 and 5 USD/kg H 2 , and 1267 and 1009 USD/MT NH 3 , respectively. Electrolysis efficiencies were relatively consistent across different sites and technologies, with values ranging from 60 to 62 kWh/kg LH 2 , indicating stable performance. Moreover, the present study highlights the inherent issues associated with energy-intensive liquefaction and shipping of hydrogen compared to ammonia. Meanwhile, the analysis reveals that production contributes more to cost variability than liquefaction and shipping. A prospective analysis for 2050, assuming reduced capital cost, estimated that LCOH and LCOA could be reduced by 44 % and 50 %, respectively, highlighting the impact of economies of scale and technological advancement. With abundant renewable energy resources, strategic export positioning, and evolving hydrogen agreements, Egypt is a prime candidate to become a leading hub for green e-fuel production and export.